Hopeful Signs for the Middle East

The conflicting parties in Lebanon agreed on a compromise for the future division of power; Syria and Israel have started peace talks. In this interview with Abed Othman, Volker Perthes talks about current developments and the interdependencies of Mideast politics

Professor Perthes, how did the agreement between the Lebanese parties in Doha come about? Which factors played a role?

Volker Perthes: I think the crisis was so extreme that everyone on all sides knew an agreement was necessary, if they were not to risk the country, the state. The fighting two weeks ago, the military conflicts on the streets of Beirut showed all sides how dangerous the situation is. That prompted them to accept the offers of Arabic mediation, just like previously at the end of the civil war in 1989, when the Saudi government contributed towards the Lebanese parties reaching a settlement in Taif.

Is there any link between this settlement and the continuation of Israeli-Syrian talks in Turkey?

Perthes: Everything in the Middle East is connected to everything else, and there is indeed an indirect link here in that the Syrian side has a vested interest in reaching an agreement with Israel at some point over the return of the occupied Syrian Golan Heights to Syria.

They have seen an opportunity to negotiate with the Israelis with Turkish support, and we can assume that if Syria actually manages to assert its legitimate rights, namely the return of the Golan, against Israel, then Syria herself will take a more constructive stance towards Lebanon. Perhaps this is an initial sign of that change, seeing as Syria also intends to support this Qatar agreement.

Does that mean they will soon get the Golan Heights back?

Perthes: Inshallah (God willing), as they say in Arabic. I would hope that they do get them back soon, but there is no way to rely on it. It depends on very many factors, including the Israeli government's ability to implement a possible treaty in practice. Sooner or later, I think, the Syrians will get the Golan Heights back as was the case with Egypt and the Sinai.

Do you consider the settlement between the Lebanese parties a workable solution, and what will happen with Hezbollah?

Perthes: There has not yet been any agreement on what will happen with Hezbollah. The major issues, Hezbollah's armaments, were excluded from the talks, and had they been at the centre of the negotiations the parties would almost certainly not have reached a settlement. I believe it is an agreement that will be acceptable for some time, I'm not saying for ever, but it's sometimes important in politics to reach a settlement for a matter of months and years. The rest remains to be seen.

It remains to be seen whether a government will be formed and whether the government and parliament together will be capable of agreeing on new election legislation. That will be the test for the workability of the agreement in the coming months.

If Syria and Israel don't reach an agreement at their talks in Turkey, will the situation escalate in Lebanon again?

Perthes: Syria and Iran and to a certain extent Israel, but certainly the USA and various European states have a very specific influence over the conflict parties in Lebanon. But without the parties themselves, there would be no conflict and no agreement, so it's always a question of how far Hezbollah or other groups in Lebanon allow themselves to act as instruments of foreign powers.

If they don't do that, if they reach a settlement and focus on the interests of their own state, then Iran, Syria, Israel, the USA or the French and the Germans will have much less influence.

What effects might this recent easing of tensions in Lebanon, Syria and Israel have on the talks with the Palestinians?

Perthes: I believe it is essentially a positive starting point for the further talks between Israel and the Palestinians. Not that it will have a direct influence, but in effect it is generally true that every easing of tension in the region can also contribute to improving Israeli-Palestinian relations, and vice versa.

If tension rises, for instance between Syria and Israel, the Palestinian-Israeli talks become more difficult, even if only because Syria for example encourages Hamas to crank up its militant resistance. As such, essentially, although it will not necessarily have direct specific effects in the immediate future, the less tense situation in Lebanon is also good for the Palestinians.

Interview: Abed Othman

Translated from the German by Katy Derbyshire

Qantara.de

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